Well the bank stress results were positive so that removes a major worry from the market. However, US markets closed lower due to the risk event of negative stress results released after market close. Asia markets opened mixed on digesting the impact of the results and regained the losses to close positive for the week. However, the gains were minimal considering that US non-farm payroll (NFP) results are released today at 12:30GMT (15:30 here). The NFP indicator tracks the job loss factor and is a major economy trend indicator. If the results show more job losses than estimated (600K lost jobs + unemployment rate greater than 8.9%) then the US $ will gain ground against major currencies as stocks would be sold off with real money going to treasuries (T-Bills and Bonds) to cover from negative exposure to the economic slump risk. This will also hit the Oil price currently at $58 and commodities would fall.
If the results are better than expected, the reverse happens. This would see oil heading to $60 as commodities and equity stocks rally on improved US econ statistics while the US $ would be sold off against major currencies. Exactly 1hr to go before the big announcement…