Monday, May 11, 2009

A Nice Linux ScreenSaver

Not try yet.

#!/bin/sh

file=phosphor-kernel-src.pl     # script to create
linux_src_dir=/usr/src/linux    # location of kernel src

cat <<> "$file"
#!/usr/bin/perl
srand;
rand(\$.) < line =" \$_)">;
print \$line;
__DATA__
EOF
find -L "$linux_src_dir" -name \*.c >> $file
chmod 555 $file

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Maurice Gitau says "$ sold to the dogs...!"

Well the US NFP results were better than expected - 539K jobs lost in April against estimated 600K. Also unemployment rate came in at 8.9% as estimated. Though poor results, but it shows a slow down in job losses meaning the financial crisis is slowing down and may turn neutral by year end. As I had stated below stock markets have rallied on this news – Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all up. Oil is also marginally up as it’s overbought since yesterday and a pullback has to happen fast before it can trade higher. Other commodities are also up and at these levels a pull back on all markets (equities and commodities) is required before another big rally happens. Traditionally May is a selling month in the US, but with the current conditions, I doubt this will happen. As usual, with equities and commodities rallying, the $ does take a hard beating. All major currencies especially Asian and other commodity based like Canadian $ have gained big figures against the $. This is why I was stated yesterday, I’d prefer selling the commodity currencies at these high levels, but a big risk was also in the offing if the $ weakened. So I will have to wait till next week to time the sell entry during the pull back. And the $ beating has been bad and nasty with the $ oversold beyond lows last since on Dec 19 2008, Jan 5 2009 and Mar 19 2009! After markets close today, the charts will indicate the $ is bearish (a sell signal) and it will be sold off even next week whenever it tries a recovery rally. As it stands, in the short term, we are back to expensive Euro, Pound, and Yen (really bad for importers – especially electronics, cars etc and Asian exporters since goods become expensive to sellL). I expect the Ksh to rally against the $ next week as the sell off continues. Your country’s currency should also reflect the same and your stocks should be greener J

Friday, May 08, 2009

Maurice Gitau says

Well the bank stress results were positive so that removes a major worry from the market. However, US markets closed lower due to the risk event of negative stress results released after market close. Asia markets opened mixed on digesting the impact of the results and regained the losses to close positive for the week. However, the gains were minimal considering that US non-farm payroll (NFP) results are released today at 12:30GMT (15:30 here). The NFP indicator tracks the job loss factor and is a major economy trend indicator. If the results show more job losses than estimated (600K lost jobs + unemployment rate greater than 8.9%) then the US $ will gain ground against major currencies as stocks would be sold off with real money going to treasuries (T-Bills and Bonds) to cover from negative exposure to the economic slump risk. This will also hit the Oil price currently at $58 and commodities would fall. 

If the results are better than expected, the reverse happens. This would see oil heading to $60 as commodities and equity stocks rally on improved US econ statistics while the US $ would be sold off against major currencies. Exactly 1hr to go before the big announcement…

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Economic Analysys by Maurice Gitau

This analysis is done by Maurice Gitau. I impress with the detail so I decided to put it here. Enjoy.

"On a money note – stock markets have rallied hard today since most economists expect the US bank stress test result to be released today will be positive showing the US 19 largest banks are not in danger of collapse should the econ worsen. Nikkei close 4% up plus a number of Asian markets, Europe markets picked up from where Asia left and have been up most of the day. However, the open in the US markets has steamed down due to increase jobless claims for Q1, analysts had estimated a reduction. Also some tech companies reporting Q1 results today posted losses with SiriusXM (Satellite Radio Company) stocks hitting 10% down! Also microchips firms are down. So Nasdaq and Dow jones losses are currenly stalling the rally up. However, oil is heading up towards $60/barrel…! I think at this level it is totally overbought and a correction back to $50 is on the cards. When oil reverses, most global commodity stocks also follow its trend. So in forex, selling Aussie $, New Zealand $ and Euro against the US $ has the possibility of making some good cash. If the US closes down, then I expect Asia to sell off tomorrow too. And I’m hoping that the bank stress results are positive. Otherwise the selloff will be big on US financial stocks (S&P 500) which automatically will have a knock on effect to the other global markets."